Russia

RUSSIA -Russia is forecast to see positive GDP growth in the 2nd Q of 2024:

Russia suffered a major blow on 3 / 24 with the terrorist attack on a Moscow concert hall attack losing 130+. Unemployment is only 2.9%, it would appear that Russia is set to continue its conflict with Ukraine for perhaps the next 6 months or longer.

Unfortunately, the Russia-Ukraine conflicts has impacted the Global Economy and Global Construction Sector, look for this problem to continue until a peaceful solution can be found.

Are sanctions against Russia working? The answer is NO they are not.  The Russian Ruble is currently one of the world’s strongest performing currency, the Russian Ruble has been resuscitated by enhanced crude oil exports to both China and India.

Russia is currently experiencing a high construction inflation rate of between 5.5% and 6.6%, this of course will lead to higher construction costs or projects getting cancelled in 2024.

The USA, European Union, UK, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Australia have levied tough sanctions / penalties on Russia with possible more to come as a result of their hostilities against Ukraine. Russia will have to deal with the severe sanctions that could cripple its economy & construction sector. Many US and European Construction related companies have moved their operations out of Russia.

Russia is a very significant supplier / exporter of oil, natural gas and metals. Elevated prices on essential materials / metals / commodities, have started triggering major price spikes around the world. Ukraine and Russia supply up to 35% of world’s wheat and barley requirements. Countries in the Middle East and in Africa are major importers of these crops, prices have risen by more than 40% with both Russia and Ukraine unable to export these products.

The Russian economy prior the commencement of hostilities in Ukraine was slightly smaller in economic terms than Italy, look for the Russian economy and construction sector to contract by at least 5% to 10% in 2024, price hikes, high inflation and rising unemployment appears to be in the cards in the next 6 to 12  months.

Needless to say, 2024 will be a challenging year for the Russian construction sector. The effect of the ongoing war with Ukraine on the construction sector has yet to be fully comprehended.